Most great events do not begin by announcing and telegraphing before they begin. They gradually unfold like a stream that uses the rocks to gather momentum and become a river that gushes down the slopes and floods the plains until it meets the Ocean.
In December 2010, Mohammed Bouazizi set fire to himself in Tunisia. A catalyst to a fire that was already burning in much of middle east and the stream became a river very quickly and became what we now call as Arab Spring. Out of that Arab spring were borne many conflicts. One of them stole the headlines in 2011 and 2012. It was Egypt. However, the one that picked up the steam a bit late but exploded the most is Syria.
It has been 4 years since. The river has been picking up momentum ever since it began. Slowly and gradually it has been adding other streams to itself. That is precisely how a flood develops. And soon the plains will be flooded.
Great wars are every generations way to create a great metamorphosis that leads to a new beginning. The creation has never rested and will never rest. It evolves continously through the mutual dance of destruction and creation. Every great destruction leads to great creation.
In the 20th century, by the end of second world war – a new creation was borne out of the great destruction. The great power of the United States of America was born. It took shape through the rest of 20th century and blossomed through later decades and into 21st century. Has the wave that began in 1940’s completed it’s peak? Who knows. Time will tell.
In my opinion, the events of late 2010 and early 2011 have set in motion another wave of great destruction. Some will argue that stream began in 2001 on September 11th. May be they are right. We only know that the streams have become rivers and have started to flood.
So in 2015 August when Germany finally stepped in and took home the hundreds of thousands of refugees washing ashore to Europe over the last year or so, we have indeed entered a new phase of this great event of 21st century.
By the time the Syrian, Ukrainian, Iraqi, Yemeni wars combine and end, a new creation will be borne out of this great destruction. And there will be a leader who will take over the remains. And there will be a new generation of progress and blossoming in the years to come. It’s a circle of creation that has withstood the test of time.
When will this river reach the ocean? Who will be the leader to arise? Who will lose the most? We can guess based on history, our biases and our preferences. It sure will be fun to play the prediction game but the truth is we never know until the time arrives.
There are always early indications in every race. They don’t tell you will win but they chalk out the probabilities and possibilities. In August 2015, I think Germany just inched ahead in the new wave. Let’s wait and watch.
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